城市轨道交通超大客流网络拥挤传播研究

The Research on the Network Congestion for Large Passenger Flow of Urban Rail Transit

中文关键词:城市轨道交通  超大客流网络传播  疾病传播  SIR模型

英文关键词:Cityrail transportation  large passenger network communication  disease transmission  SIR model

中文摘要:

      为研究城市轨道交通超大客流传播的时间规律以及不同数量拥堵站点对整体轨道交通网络的影响，通过定义超大客流，引用疾病传播理论,建立了基于网络拥挤模型的超大客流拥堵网络疾病传播模型，并运用Adams微分方程数值进行模型求解。对反演参数得到的SIR传染病模型的传播特性拟合运用于轨道交通网络，并通过不同的初始拥堵站点数量进行仿真。研究表明:轨道交通超大客流的病态传播受传染概率、恢复概率、初始拥堵站点数影响，该联系为超大客流网络拥挤传播提供一种新的研究思路。

英文摘要:

      Effect of time to study the law of city rail transit transmission and different number of large passenger congestion site of rail transit network, from the spread of disease theory, established large passenger congestion network spread disease model of network congestion based on the model, and the use of Adams differential equation numerical model was solved. Propagation characteristics of fitting SIR infectious disease model of this study of inversion parameters are applied to the rail transit network, and simulation through the initial amount of congestion in different sites. Research shows that morbid spread large passenger rail transportation by probability of infection, recovery probability, initial congestion stations, also provides a new research method for the large passenger congestion propagation.