基于“三阶段法”的高速铁路短期运量预测

Short term Traffic Forecast of the High speed Railway Based on “Three stage method”

中文关键词:三阶段法  铁路运量预测  组合预测模型  多元LOGIT模型  弹性系数诱增模型

英文关键词:three stage method  railway traffic volume forecast  Combination Forecast Model  multivariate LOGIT model  elasticity coefficient induced model

中文摘要:

      考虑到我国未来年度的OD分布预测中的路网构成变化、区域经济布局变动、区域经济增长速度差异等一些具有时变性和特殊性因素，采用在“四阶段法”运量预测基础上改进而成的“三阶段法”进行高速铁路短期客运量预测。首先采用组合预测模型进行趋势运量预测，然后采用多元LOGIT模型进行方式分担，最后采用弹性系数诱增模型进行诱增运量预测。以京沪高铁为例，采用“三阶段法”预测了2014年和2015年京沪高铁本线及跨线单向客流量。

英文摘要:

      Considering the time varying and special factors in the forecast of China’s OD distribution in the coming years, such as the road network structure changes, changes in the regional economic layout, and different speeds of regional economic growth, this paper mainly uses the “three stage method”evolved on the basis of the “four stage method”for the short term forecast of the high speed railway traffic volumet. First, Combination Forecast Model is used to forecast the trend traffic volume, then, Multivariate LOGIT Model is used to forecast the share of each mode of transportation, and finally Elasticity Coefficient Induced Model is used to forecast induced traffic volume. Taking an example of Beijing Shanghai high speed railway, this paper uses the “three stage method”to forecast the original line and cross line traffic volume in 2014 and 2015.